A +3°C El Niño? The ENSO Forecast Is Getting Interesting
The latest IRI forecast points toward an exceptionally strong El Niño, with several models reaching or exceeding +3°C.
Read perspective →Forecasts
What might
happen next?
Looking across timescales—from the climate signals emerging today to the weeks and seasons ahead.
01
ENSO
Understanding the climate signal.
ENSO is one of the most powerful sources of seasonal climate predictability. I monitor its evolution, forecasts, and potential regional impacts.
LATEST FORECAST PERSPECTIVE
El Niño 2026: What a Very Strong El Niño Could Mean for the United States in Fall 2026
The tropical Pacific is warming exceptionally fast. What could this mean for weather across America during Fall 2026?
Read the analysis →02
Subseasonal
Looking weeks ahead.
Subseasonal prediction bridges weather and climate—providing information about conditions that may unfold over the coming weeks.
03
Seasonal
Looking months ahead.
Seasonal forecasts provide a longer view of climate conditions, helping us understand the probability of unusual rainfall, temperature, and other climate patterns.
04
Forecast Perspectives
Looking beyond the forecast.
Forecasts provide the signal. Interpretation helps us understand what that signal might mean.