Ehsan M Azhar

RESEARCH

Questions about Earth.
Questions about prediction.

My research explores how Earth-system signals evolve, how predictable they are, and how forecasts can become useful information for society— from ENSO and climate variability to subseasonal prediction, machine learning, and climate services.

01

ENSO & CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Understanding ENSO. Improving prediction.

Understanding ENSO, its evolution, predictability, forecasting, and impacts—and improving our ability to anticipate what comes next.

RESEARCH PAPER · 2024

Real-time ENSO forecast skill evaluated over the last two decades, with focus on the onset of ENSO events

An evaluation of real-time ENSO forecasts and their ability to anticipate the onset of ENSO events.

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ENCYCLOPEDIA · 2026

El Niño Southern Oscillation: Characteristics, Forecasting, and Impacts

A broad overview of ENSO, its characteristics, forecasting, and impacts.

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02

ENSO TELECONNECTIONS

From the Pacific to regional climate.

Understanding how large-scale ENSO variability translates into regional rainfall and climate patterns.

RESEARCH PAPER

The ENSO Fingerprint on Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Exploring how ENSO influences summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh and how large-scale ocean signals translate into regional climate variability.

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03

SUBSEASONAL-TO-SEASONAL PREDICTION

Seeing weeks and seasons ahead.

Exploring how subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts can provide useful information about upcoming climate risks, particularly at regional scales.

RESEARCH PAPER · PAKISTAN · 2022

Calibrated probabilistic sub-seasonal forecasting for Pakistan's monsoon rainfall in 2022

Applying calibrated probabilistic subseasonal prediction to understand and communicate monsoon rainfall risk.

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04

AI & MACHINE LEARNING

New tools for Earth-system prediction.

Exploring how machine learning and emerging data-driven approaches can complement traditional Earth-system prediction.

RESEARCH PAPER · 2026

Improving subseasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall forecasts with U-Net calibration

Using deep learning to improve the calibration of subseasonal rainfall forecasts.

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05

CLIMATE VARIABILITY & CHANGE

Understanding a changing climate system.

From large-scale ocean variability to regional climate and future climate projections.

RESEARCH PAPER · 2020

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

Examining how Atlantic Ocean variability influences summer climate over the Middle East.

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RESEARCH PAPER · 2021

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

Investigating projected changes in temperature and precipitation using CMIP6 climate models.

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EARTH INFORMATION FOR SOCIETY

From prediction
to useful information.

Scientific prediction becomes valuable when it can be translated into information that people can understand and use.

CLIMATE SERVICES

On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia

Connecting seasonal prediction, post-processing, and climate information to support useful climate services over Ethiopia.

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Understanding Earth.
Improving Prediction.
Serving Society.

PUBLICATIONS

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