Research,
in the record.

Improving subseasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall forecasts with U-Net calibration

Esmaili, Emile D.; Robertson, Andrew W.; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Singh, Bohar; Kaplan, Aaron; Dey, Avijit; Joseph, Susmitha

Climate Dynamics, 64(7), 326

Exploring future changes of rainfall across Bangladesh using the optimal bias-corrected CMIP6 GCM model

Bhattacharjee, Arnob; Islam, Shahana; Rahman, Moomtahina; Roy, Ananya; Islam, Abu Reza Md Towfiqul; Meraj, Gowhar; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Almazroui, Mansour

Earth Systems and Environment, 9(4), 3059–3081

ENSO teleconnections and predictability of the boreal summer temperature over the Arabian Peninsula in C3S and Saudi-KAU seasonal forecast systems

Almazroui, Mansour; Khalid, M Salman; Abid, Muhammad Adnan; Rashid, Irfan Ur; Kamil, Shahzad; Siddiqui, Haroon; Islam, M Nazrul; Ismail, Muhammad; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; O’Brien, Enda; et al.

Atmospheric Research, 315, 107856

Evaluating the spatiotemporal variation of agricultural droughts in Bangladesh using MODIS-based vegetation indices

Mamun, Md Abdullah Al; Alauddin, Mohammed; Meraj, Gowhar; Almazroui, Mansour; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar

Earth Systems and Environment, 8(4), 997–1010

Real-time ENSO forecast skill evaluated over the last two decades, with focus on the onset of ENSO events

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; L’Heureux, Michelle L.; Tippett, Michael K.; Robertson, Andrew W.; Turmelle, Jeffrey

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7, 301

Calibrated probabilistic sub-seasonal forecasting for Pakistan’s monsoon rainfall in 2022

Singh, Bohar; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Robertson, Andrew W.

Climate Dynamics, 62(5), 3375–3393

The ENSO fingerprint on Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Tippett, Michael K.; Robertson, Andrew W.; Singh, Bohar; Rahman, Muhammad Ashfaqur

Earth Systems and Environment, 7(3), 617–627

Investigation of irrigation water requirement and evapotranspiration for water resource management in Southern Punjab, Pakistan

Hussain, Sajjad; Mubeen, Muhammad; Nasim, Wajid; Fahad, Shah; Ali, Musaddiq; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Raza, Ali

Sustainability, 15(3), 1768

Assessment of drought conditions over different climate zones of Kazakhstan using standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index

Farooq, Ishfaq; Shah, Abdul Rauf; Sahana, Mehebub; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar

Earth Systems and Environment, 7(1), 283–296

Forecast skill of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall in C3S and NMME models after calibration

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Singh, Bohar

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 104, 101410

Evaluation of Potential Predictability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in ECMWF’s Fifth-Generation Seasonal Forecast System (SEAS5)

Attada, Raju; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Pillai, Prasanth A.

Pure and Applied Geophysics, 179(12), 4639–4655

Climate change repercussions on meteorological drought frequency and intensity in South Wollo, Ethiopia

Mohammed, Umar Demisse; Legesse, Solomon Addisu; Berlie, Arega Bazezew; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar

Earth Systems and Environment, 6(3), 645–655

Spatio-temporal change of glacier surging and glacier-dammed lake formation in Karakoram Pakistan

Qureshi, Javed Akhter; Khan, Garee; Ali, Nauman; Ali, Sajid; ur Rehman, Shams; Bano, Razia; Saeed, Sajjad; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar

Earth Systems and Environment, 6(1), 249–262

Skill of the Saudi-KAU CGCM in forecasting ENSO and its comparison with NMME and C3S models

Almazroui, Mansour; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Tippett, Michael K.; Ismail, Muhammad; Islam, M Nazrul; Camargo, Suzana J.; Abid, Muhammad Adnan; O’Brien, Enda; Kamil, Shahzad; Robertson, Andrew W.; et al.

Earth Systems and Environment, 6(2), 327–341

Skill assessment of Saudi-KAU and C3S models in prediction of spring season rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula

Almazroui, Mansour; Khalid, Salman; Kamil, Shahzad; Ismail, Muhammad; Islam, M Nazrul; Saeed, Sajjad; Abid, Muhammad Adnan; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Hantoush, Ahmed S.

Atmospheric Research, 280, 106461

Impacts of land-use/land-cover changes on water-borne soil erosion using geospatial technologies and RUSLE Model over Chimbel Watershed of Upper Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia

Senamaw, Abebe; Gashaw, Temesgen; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar

Earth Systems and Environment, 6(2), 483–497

On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia

Acharya, Nachiketa; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Admasu, Adrajow; Teshome, Asaminew; Hall, Kyle Joseph Chen

Climate Services, 24, 100272

Projected changes in climate extremes using CMIP6 simulations over SREX regions

Almazroui, Mansour; Saeed, Fahad; Saeed, Sajjad; Ismail, Muhammad; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Islam, M Nazrul; Abid, Muhammad Adnan; O’Brien, Enda; Kamil, Shahzad; Rashid, Irfan Ur; et al.

Earth Systems and Environment, 5(3), 481–497

Projected drought conditions over southern slope of the central Himalaya using CMIP6 models

Sharma, Shankar; Hamal, Kalpana; Khadka, Nitesh; Ali, Munawar; Subedi, Madan; Hussain, Gulfam; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Saeed, Sajjad; Dawadi, Binod

Earth Systems and Environment, 5(4), 849–859

Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

Almazroui, Mansour; Islam, M Nazrul; Saeed, Fahad; Saeed, Sajjad; Ismail, Muhammad; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Diallo, Ismaila; O’Brien, Enda; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Martínez-Castro, Daniel; et al.

Earth Systems and Environment, 5(1), 1–24

A quantitative assessment of changes in seasonal potential predictability for the twentieth century

Ehsan, M Azhar; Kang, In-Sik; Almazroui, Mansour; Abid, M Adnan; Kucharski, Fred

Climate Dynamics, 41(9), 2697–2709

Predicting peak summer monsoon precipitation over Pakistan in ECMWF SEAS5 and North American Multimodel Ensemble

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Tippett, Michael K.; Kucharski, Fred; Almazroui, Mansour; Ismail, Muhammad

International Journal of Climatology, 40(13), 5556–5573

Potential predictability of boreal winter precipitation over central-southwest Asia in the North American multi-model ensemble

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Kucharski, Fred; Almazroui, Mansour

Climate Dynamics, 54(1), 473–490

Potential predictability of boreal summer surface air temperature of South Asia in the North American multimodel ensemble

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar

Atmospheric Research, 241, 104974

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Nicolì, Dario; Kucharski, Fred; Almazroui, Mansour; Tippett, Michael K.; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Kang, In-Sik

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3(1), 5

Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

Merryfield, William J.; Baehr, Johanna; Batté, Lauriane; Becker, Emily J.; Butler, Amy H.; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Domeisen, Daniela IV; et al.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(6), E869–E896

Subseasonal to decadal prediction: Filling the weather–climate gap

Merryfield, William J.; Baehr, Johanna; Batté, Lauriane; Becker, Emily J.; Butler, Amy H.; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Domeisen, Daniela IV; et al.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(9), 767–770

Potential predictability of Arabian peninsula summer surface air temperature in the North American multimodel ensemble

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Kucharski, Fred; Almazroui, Mansour; Ismail, Muhammad; Tippett, Michael K.

Climate Dynamics, 53(7), 4249–4266

An improvement in mass flux convective parameterizations and its impact on seasonal simulations using a coupled model

Elsayed Yousef, Ahmed; Ehsan, M Azhar; Almazroui, Mansour; Assiri, Mazen E.; Al-Khalaf, Abdulrahman K.

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 127(3), 779–791

Saudi-KAU coupled global climate model: description and performance

Almazroui, Mansour; Tayeb, Osama; Mashat, Abdulfattah S.; Yousef, Ahmed; Al-Turki, Yusuf A.; Abid, M. Adnan; Bafail, Abdullah O.; Ehsan, M. Azhar; Zahed, Adnan; Rahman, M. Ashfaqur; et al.

Earth Systems and Environment, 1(1), 7

Impact of different cumulus parameterization schemes in SAUDI-KAU AGCM

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Almazroui, Mansour; Yousef, Ahmed

Earth Systems and Environment, 1(1), 3

Skill and predictability in multimodel ensemble forecasts for Northern Hemisphere regions with dominant winter precipitation

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Tippett, Michael K.; Almazroui, Mansour; Ismail, Muhammad; Yousef, Ahmed; Kucharski, Fred; Omar, Mohamed; Hussein, Mahmoud; Alkhalaf, Abdulrahman A.

Climate Dynamics, 48(9), 3309–3324

Sensitivity of AGCM-simulated regional JJAS precipitation to different convective parameterization schemes

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Almazroui, Mansour; Yousef, Ahmed; O’Brien, Enda; Tippett, Michael K.; Kucharski, Fred; Alkhalaf, Abdulrahman A.

International Journal of Climatology, 37(13), 4594–4609

Effect of mid-latitude blocking anticyclones on the weather of the Arabian Peninsula

Athar, H.; Almazroui, Mansour; Islam, M. Nazrul; Abid, M. Adnan; Ehsan, M. Azhar

International Journal of Climatology, 33(3), 585–598

Interannual variability of rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula using the IPCC AR4 Global Climate Models

Almazroui, Mansour; Abid, M. Adnan; Athar, H.; Islam, M. Nazrul; Ehsan, M. Azhar

International Journal of Climatology, 33(10), 2328–2340

Improving Sub-seasonal Monsoon Forecasts Over India with Machine Learning for Hydrologic Applications

Robertson, Andrew William; Esmaili, Emile; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; et al.

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts

How Global Warming is Transforming ENSO Teleconnections and Rainfall Patterns in Thailand and Vietnam?

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Ines, Amor Valeriano; FitzSimons, Toby

105th Annual AMS Meeting 2025

Teleconnection Influences and Forecast Skill of NMME Models in Seasonal Drought Prediction over the Arabian Peninsula

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Esmaili, Emile; Robertson, Andrew William; et al.

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts

Adapting Seasonal Temperature Forecasts to a Warming World: Challenges and Strategies

Singh, Bohar; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Nilak, Veeraj

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts

Investigation of Seasonal Predictability and Forecast Skill of Arabian Peninsula Summer Season Rainfall using Recalibrated Multimodel Ensembles

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Robertson, Andrew William; Tippett, Michael; et al.

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts

Investigation of Seasonal Predictability and Forecast Skill of Arabian Peninsula Wet Season Rainfall using Recalibrated Multimodel Ensembles

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Robertson, Andrew W.; Yuan, Jing; et al.

104th Annual AMS Meeting 2024

Assessing NMME Models in Forecasting El Niño/La Niña Onset During Last 30-years

Park, Sungjoon; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts

Enhancing Climate Information Services in Africa Through Next Generation Seasonal and Subseasonal Climate Forecasts

Robertson, Andrew W.; Munoz, Angel G.; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; et al.

American Meteorological Society Meeting Abstracts

Skill Assessment of state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting models in simulating summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh

Singh, Bohar; Ehsan, Muhammad; Robertson, Andrew

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts

The Impact of Climate on Coffee Production in Ethiopia

Kopper, Ryan; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Hernandez-Aguilera, Juan Nicolás

AGU Fall Meeting 2021

Variability and potential predictability of summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Singh, Bohar

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts

Predictability of Two Types of El Niños Assessed by ECMWF System 5 and Its Impacts on Western North American Climate

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar

American Meteorological Society Meeting Abstracts

Increasing Arabian Peninsula Summer Surface Air Temperature Response to Greenhouse Warming: The Role of Water Vapor Feedback

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Kucharski, Fred

American Meteorological Society Meeting Abstracts

Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Gonu with RegCM4 ↗

Fifth ICTP Workshop on the Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models

ICTP, Trieste, Italy · June 2010

Preprint / Working Paper

Three Decades of NMME Hindcasts: Predictive Skill and Uncertainty in ENSO Onset Forecasting

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Park, Sungjoon · Available at SSRN 5503819

PhD Dissertation

Development of Convective Clouds Parameterization Scheme in Saudi-KAU Global Climate Model for Enhancing Climate Prediction over Arabian Peninsula

King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah