The tropical Pacific is sending a remarkably strong signal.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued its latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion on August 13, 2026, and the message is clear: El Niño is strengthening rapidly and is expected to become a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. CPC places the chance of a very strong El Niño during fall and winter above 90%. It also estimates a 69% probability that the October–December 2026 event will exceed the intensity of previous El Niño events since 1950.
But as headlines begin using phrases such as “Super El Niño,” there is an important distinction:
A very strong ocean signal does not automatically mean very strong impacts everywhere.
The numbers are getting attention
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have already exceeded +2.0°C in parts of the region. In July 2026, CPC reported Niño-3.4 at +1.4°C, Niño-3 at +1.7°C, and Niño-1+2 at +2.9°C.
The forecast signal is also unusually strong. The latest IRI forecast showed 23 of 26 models predicting Niño-3.4 ≥ +2.0°C during October–December.
These are striking numbers. But what do they actually tell us?
The ocean has memory
ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system, not simply a measure of sea surface temperature.
CPC reports substantial subsurface warmth across the equatorial Pacific, with temperature anomalies reaching about +10°C at depth in parts of the region. Continued westerly wind anomalies are also helping maintain conditions favorable for further surface warming.
That does not mean temperatures will continue rising indefinitely. It means the ocean currently provides substantial support for a strong El Niño as we approach the typical peak season.
Strong El Niño does not mean identical impacts
This is where the conversation needs some nuance.
A very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of El Niño-related climate impacts in many parts of the world. But it does not produce one global weather pattern that simply becomes stronger everywhere as Niño-3.4 increases.
Every El Niño has its own characteristics.
Atmospheric circulation, tropical convection, other ocean basins, seasonal timing, and shorter-term weather variability all influence how the large-scale ENSO signal translates into regional conditions.
In other words:
Intensity matters, but intensity alone does not determine the outcome.